S&P hv indicated that Asian market, including Malaysia, is set to rebound in the 2nd half of 2009. Overall 2009, however, will still experience contraction mainly due to a forecasted soft first 2 quarters. Financial sectors in Asian markets are not expected to give way the way the western countries’ did as the fundamentals are strong.
US is expected to recover too in the 2nd half, albeit at a slower rate, with the assumption that Nov 2008 is the bottom of it.
Schroders (Malaysia) however were less optimistic indicating a recovery over 2010. Monetary and fiscal policies employed by individual goverment globally have seen little effect todate. All is not gloomy as the policies pay dividend if inflation is under control and with the lower commodities prices. Schroders have moved fm “under weight” to “neutral” rating in the belief that the policies should support the market in the coming months.
The recent rebound in Malaysia’s market was seen to be warranted as it is believed the market has fallen below reasonable fundamental levels due to deleveraging and redemptions by global investors according to S&P.
Refer TheStar (Jan 12, 2009) for full report.
Relative to above report, general “feel” of the export market is that orders will start to come in after CNY, at lower volume though compared to the previous year as overall market remained at a “cautious” mode. Good news is we’ve seen some recovery in the price of CPO in the past 2 weeks as well as Bursa. However, globally, orders seemed to be still on “vacation” mood. Let’s see what the yr of “ox” (instead of “bull”) will bring us, apart from daily news on “retrenchment”, factory closure, cutting down production etc etc
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Everybody is hoping on that.
http://www.enerplus.com.my
let’s just keep our fingers crossed. anyway, have recently seen some recovery in terms of orders from overseas. orders for steel started to come in a little but i guess it’ll still be done very cautiously. why not we start a pool to see when bursa goes back up to more than 1000pts?.. hahahaha…